Category: Climate News Roundup

If you tend to worry too much about climate change, then perhaps Andrew Revkin’s interesting and introspective essay will help. I particularly like his climate change “serenity prayer”: “Change what can be changed, accept what can’t, and know the difference. Science can help clarify which is which.”

Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe has vetoed a bill that would give the General Assembly authority over the state’s implementation of the Clean Power Plan for curbing CO2 emissions for electric power generation. The Senate failed to override the veto.

I subscribe to a blog called RealClimate that is run by climate scientists. I don’t normally include links to posts in it because they tend to be pretty technical. However, while I was out of town there was a post about sea level rise that I thought you would appreciate. Scientists have been able to reconstruct historical sea levels back around 2500 years. This shows that what has happened during the 20th century is indeed extraordinary. Similarly, The Atlantic had an article on how scientists study sea level rise, which gives a good perspective, but lacks the graphics in the RealClimate post. Meanwhile, German scientists, using Copenhagen as a case study, have concluded that damage costs increase much more rapidly than sea level rise itself, which seems logical.

Utility Dive has released its 2016 State of the Electric Utility Survey. It revealed that for the second year in a row, electric utility executives responding to the survey ranked energy storage first among the technologies for future investment. DOE’s Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (ARPA-E) claims to have made significant advances in battery technology so things may be happening rapidly in the future. The Utility Dive survey provides interesting insights into how electric utilities are planning to respond to the changing energy landscape. In addition, 91% of respondents indicated they expect utility-scale solar to increase significantly or moderately in their fuel mixes over the next five years, while 77% see wind doing so.

Heather Clancy writes on GreenBiz: “Despite uncertainty surrounding the future of the Clean Power Plan and contractual nuances that make even the smallest project feel unnecessarily complex, big businesses seem more committed to renewable energy than ever.” In fact, new data just released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration suggest that in the coming year, the solar sector will add more new electricity-generating capacity than any other — including natural gas and wind.

A new paper published in Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres adds further evidence for the concept that drought was a contributor to the ongoing Syrian conflict. Using tree ring data going back 900 years the investigators found that the recent drought is likely the driest period on record and almost certainly the worst in 500 years.

According to data from its National Bureau of Statistics, China cut its CO2 emissions by 1-2% in 2015 while installing a record amount of wind (32.5 GW) and solar (18.3 GW) power. (Joe Romm has an analysis of China’s coal policy and Sophie Yeo takes a deep dive into what is happening with China’s coal consumption.) Meanwhile Australia’s CO2 emissions increased 3.2% from July 2014 to July 2015.

A draft inventory of US greenhouse gas emissions reports that emissions in 2014 were 1% higher than they were in 2013, marking the third year in a row that they have increased. Most disturbing was a 27% increase in methane emissions, causing EPA to hold off on publishing an official value until they have reviewed the data more thoroughly.

Even though El Nino was supposed to bring rain to California, as of last Tuesday 38% of the state was still in “exceptional drought” compared to 40% at a comparable time last year. Furthermore, according to an analysis of official temperature records by the Los Angeles Times the average high temperature during February in L.A. was almost 2 degrees F above the previous record.

French-speaking Indians who live deep in a Louisiana bayou, some 50 miles south of New Orleans, became the United States’ first official climate refugees last week when the federal government awarded them $48 million to relocate.

ClearPath is a foundation whose mission is to accelerate conservative clean energy solutions. They have recently released a survey of voters concerning their views on energy. Their website allows you to view state and district level opinions on energy by party affiliation. The results for the 6th congressional district are quite interesting. Meanwhile, Ivy Main reports on the fate of renewable energy bills in the Virginia General Assembly this year. Perhaps the members of the GA should examine the results of the ClearPath poll.

Did global warming really slow down for a decade or so in the 2000s and does it really matter if it did? Graham Readfearn of The Guardian examines this question in light of a recent paper in Nature Climate Change that has analyzed air temperature and other data relevant to global heat content. Michael Mann, one of the authors of the paper, comments on the attempts by climate change skeptics to manufacture a controversy among climate scientists as a result of the paper.

Satellite images suggest tropical forests from the Amazon to the Philippines are disappearing at a far more rapid pace than previously thought, a University of Maryland team of forest researchers say. Others, however, disagree with the methods used.

A new study published in the journal The Cryosphere finds that Greenland is darkening, contributing to a positive feedback loop in which melting leads to a “darker” surface, increasing heat absorption, leading to more melting, etc. I have put darker in quotes because the darkening is not necessarily visible to the naked eye, but may occur at wavelengths outside of our visual range. Unlike other studies, this one did not find that soot from wildfires elsewhere on Earth was a significant factor.

A couple of weeks ago I provided links to a study that showed that middle and high schools teachers were often unprepared to teach effectively about climate change. Now John Cook, founder of the Skeptical Science website and Climate Communication Fellow at The University of Queensland in Australia, has written about an effective technique for teaching “controversial” topics.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

The big news this week was the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.  Andrew Revkin reviews his dissent in the 2007 case in which the Court ruled that EPA had the authority to regulate CO2 as a pollutant under the Clean Air Act.  Brad Plummer at Vox discusses how Justice Scalia’s death might influence the fate of the Clean Power Plan while Elizabeth Harball and Emily Holden document the variety of opinions and approaches among state regulatory agencies re the CPP.  In addition, Chris Mooney argues that electric power companies are likely to keep transitioning to renewable energy sources and natural gas at the expense of coal, regardless of what happens with the CPP.

As some states continue to work on their plans for complying with the CPP one option that they are considering is cap-and-trade, such as in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in the Northeast.  However, activists in the environmental justice movement argue that cap-and-trade will allow coal-fired power plants, with their associated health impacts, to continue to operate, thereby impacting people of color, a disproportionate number of whom live within 3 miles of such plants.

Grist has an interesting essay entitled “How Obama went from coal’s top cheerleader to its No. 1 enemy.”  It traces the history of the Clean Power Plan, arguing that it was an inevitable outcome of 50 years of Clean Air Act regulations.  Meanwhile, the Virginia Senate voted on Monday to extend the coal tax credit until 2020.  The credit had been scheduled to sunset at the end of this year.

In the wake of last week’s decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to delay implementation of the Clean Power Plan until the Appeals Court rules on it, many commentators conjectured that a ruling against the Plan would be the end of the Paris Agreement.  Ed King of Climate Home disagrees and argues that local conditions in many developing countries will lead them to reduce their emissions regardless of what we do.  In addition, the diplomatic consequences of the U.S. pulling out of the Paris agreement would be very serious.

Even though some prominent Florida politicians deny or downplay climate change, local communities in the state are working to minimize the impacts of sea level rise and determine the most effective strategies for adapting to it.  One Florida Republican politician who takes climate change seriously is Rep. Carlos Curbelo, who started the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus with Rep. Theodore Deutch, a Democrat.  Marcia Yerman has an interesting interview with Rep. Curbelo.

On Tuesday Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe joined governors from 16 other states in signing The Governor’s Accord for a New Energy Future.  In doing so the governors pledged to accelerate their efforts to create a green economy in the US by boosting renewables, building better electricity grids and cutting emissions from transport.

NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies has just released its analysis of Earth’s surface temperature data for January 2016.  They found that the global average temperature for January was 1.13 degrees C above the 1951-1980 average, setting a new record.  The previous record for January, set in 2007, was 0.95 C above the average.  El Nino hit its peak in January, which doubtless contributed to the new record. NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency also found January 2016 to be the hottest January on record.  The warming in the Arctic has been particularly acute, although perhaps not record setting.  Finally, The New York Times has published an interactive graphic showing the 2015 daily temperature and rainfall data for 3,116 cities provided by AccuWeather.  Record highs and lows are marked so you can easily see how your city (i.e., local airport weather station) fared.

​A new study published in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles has found that the North Atlantic Ocean has absorbed 50% more CO2 in the last decade than in the previous decade, thereby accelerating ocean acidification.  Another study, published in Scientific Reports, found that while mussels make more brittle shells in an acidic ocean they develop a better repair mechanism, allowing them to more rapidly repair cracks when they occur.

Warming waters in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans have caused increased mortality of sea stars and lobsters.

According to a new study algae-produced neurotoxins that are deadly in high doses ​have been found​ in 13 marine mammal species across Alaska, including as far north as the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.​  The study​,​ from ​NOAA’s Northwest fisheries center​, document​s​ a major expansion of the areas along the Pacific Coast of North America where harmful algal blooms are known to occur​.​  This expansion is thought to be associated with the warming of Pacific coastal waters.

​Scientists have developed a new “vegetation sensitivity index”, which indicates to what extent plant growth is affected by fluctuations in the climate​, and used a mapping system to illustrate that sensitivity.  The index includes three variables, temperature, water availability and cloud cover.​  The maps allow easy visualization of Earth’s ecosystems that are most sensitive to climate change.​

A new study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters has found that the United States could be responsible for between 30 and 60​%​ of the global growth in human-caused methane emissions since 2002​.​  Joe Romm has a very interesting commentary on the study, with a particularly valuable bibliography at the end.

Germany has a reputation as a leader in renewable energy.  Now it is hoping to move into a leadership role in bicycle commuting by adding biking highways that are removed from automobile traffic and dedicated to bicycles.

Author and activist Terry Tempest Williams bid on an oil and gas lease for 800 acres of BLM land in Utah in an effort to call attention to fossil fuel extraction on public lands.  N
early 100 protesters were escorted peacefully out of the auction when they refused to stop singing​ “I hear the voice of my great granddaughters saying, keep it in the ground.”​Unfortunately, an unintended consequence of the protest may be to drive the BLM to hold auctions on-line.​

Want to plant a tree each time you do an on-line search?  Well, this search engine will help you do that.  Katie Valentine at Climate Progress describes it for you.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

Last week I mentioned that the CAAV Steering Committee had read What We Think about When We Try Not to Think about Global Warming by Per Epsen Stoknes as part of our retreat.  Amelia Urry has an excellent summary on Grist based on an interview with the author.  In addition, Transition United States has a video that goes over the most important information in the first two parts of the book.

The big news this week is that on Tuesday the U.S. Supreme Court blocked implementation of EPA’s Clean Power Plan while the D.C. Circuit Court considers the merits of a challenge by more than two dozen states to its legality.  Martha Roberts, writing on the Environmental Defense Fund blog, makes the case for the Clean Power Plan.  As might be expected, some states have decided to hold off on the CPP, but others are continuing to develop their compliance plans and major utility companies are continuing with their plans to diversify their energy sources.

​Republican ​p​residential candidates Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush​ agreed last week to meet with a group of 15 South Florida mayors concerned about climate change’s impact on their state and on the country as a whole.​  And two Congressmen — Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) and Rep. Theodore Deutch (D), both of Florida, filed paperwork ​last​ week to create the Climate Solutions Caucus.​  For an interesting and inspiring blog detailing much of the behind-the-scenes work​ that helped make the Caucus a reality, go here.

​It was no surprise last week when President Obama proposed a $10 a barrel tax on oil that Republicans in Congress were opposed to it.  It might be a surprise, however, that many economists are in favor of such a tax.​

​​A committee of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a United Nations agency, agreed on Monday to the first emissions-reduction standards for aircraft​.  ​The agreement, which took six years to negotiate and must still be approved by ICAO’s governing council, was the subject of significant criticism by environmental groups.  In addition, two members of the faculty of the University of Western Australia don’t think much of the agreement.

Investors and industry analysts say that renewable energy will buck the trend of falling investment in oil and gas because it can offer long-term returns sheltered from political risk.  Consequently some long-term investors say the smart money is shifting away from oil and gas.  For example, Allianz and Bank of America​ are making their first investments in on-shore wind farms in the United States, with investments in two wind parks in New Mexico with a combined capacity of around 300 MW.​
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​According to a comment published Wednesday in the journal Nature: “those who manage other people’s money have a duty to control for ‘material risks’. In finance, that means risks that might trigger a 5% or more loss in investment value. Climate damage in the future is expected to be one such risk.”  Therefore, “clients and beneficiaries of investment firms might have a legal case to bring against their investors who stand idly by as emissions erode the value of their stock.”​

California added 20,000 new solar energy jobs in 2015, more than half the total positions added nationwide.  Furthermore, last year the solar industry added workers at a rate nearly 12 times faster than the overall economy.​  ​So why are companies like SolarCity experiencing dropping stock prices?  Also, what will happen as incentive programs expire?​

In its annual energy outlook, BP indicated larger growth in renewables than it had in the past, but continued to project strong use of oil and natural gas.  Others, however, thought their analysis did not change as much as it should have in light of the Paris agreement.

According to Jim Pierobon writing on The Energy Fix, data centers run by Amazon, Apple, and Google don’t get as much of their electricity from renewable sources as they claim.

Ivy Main had a blog post on The Energy Collective that summarizes the bills before the Virginia Legislature that deal with energy issues.  Unfortunately, most of them met delaying tactics, as described in her Power for the People VA blog.

Two papers just published on-line in Nature Climate Change focus on melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica and their long-term impacts on sea level rise.  Robert McSweeney of Carbon Brief provides a summary of the articles while Damian Carrington of The Guardian provides a deeper discussion of the implications of the work.  In addition, Chris Mooney at The Washington Post explains the paper focusing on the Antarctic ice shelves and their roles as gate-keepers controlling the advance of the glaciers.  Andrew Freedman, writing on Mashable, considers the implications of the paper that looks far into the future.

Surprisingly, changes in rainfall and evaporation patterns since 2002 have caused more water to be stored on land, reducing sea level rise by around 20%, according to a new study published in Science.

​​Warming temperatures are causing about half of the world’s plants and animals to move location, an international conference in Australia heard Wednesday, with every major type of species affected.​

​Recent estimates suggest ​that ​as much as a third of ​greenhouse gas emissions could be offset by stopping deforestation and restoring forest land — and that this solution could be achieved much faster than cuts to fossil fuel​ use.​

Research published in this week’s Science indicates that the majority of middle- and high-school teachers teaching about climate change are unaware of the scientific consensus that it is caused primarily by human activities and teach climate change as an ongoing debate in the scientific community.​

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

Sorry to be late with this Weekly Roundup. The CAAV Steering Committee had its annual retreat on Saturday and in preparation for the meeting we read What We Think About When We Try Not to Think About Global Warming by Per Espen Stoknes (Chelsea Green Publishing, 2015, ISBN 978-1-60358-583-5). The subtitle is “Toward a New Psychology of Climate Action.” I highly recommend this book for anyone concerned about climate change, but particularly those engaged in climate action. I think its message is extremely important.

• The Zika virus is a major news item right now, but just how serious a threat is it to the U.S.? Writing in Slate, Eric Holthaus describes how climate change is impacting the spread of Aedes aegypti and the associated Zika virus, as well as an analysis of the disease’s potential impact in the U.S.
• A new report from the Niskanen Center, a fiscally conservative think tank, makes the case for why the coal industry should embrace a carbon tax. In addition, the International Monetary Fund has called for a carbon tax on shipping and aviation as a way of spurring innovation in those sectors.
• A developer of coal-fired power plants in India is seeking to install a photovoltaic solar energy array rather than a coal-fired thermal power plant at a site in Punjab because the economics of solar are more attractive. Meanwhile, in Africa the Rwandan government has partnered with Ignite Power to provide rooftop solar to 250,000 households by 2018. On another renewable energy front, China installed just under 29 gigawatts of new wind energy capacity in 2015, accounting for more than 46% of all wind power installed globally for the year. Meanwhile, Dong Energy, Denmark’s state-backed energy utility, announced this week that it will build a 1.2 gigawatt windfarm 72 miles off of the Yorkshire coast of the UK.
• A new analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Ceres finds that investment in the renewable energy industry must increase by around 75% over current projections in order to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement signed in December. Meanwhile, Karl Mathiesen argues in The Guardian that outdated grid infrastructure and inadequate storage options are two factors holding solar back.
• During 2015 declines in electricity generation from coal combined with increases in generation from natural gas and renewable sources resulted in coal contributing only 34% of our electricity production. Furthermore, natural gas now contributes 32% so it is likely that natural gas will surpass coal in 2016. More importantly, 70% of new generating capacity installed last year was renewable. This raises the question of how electric utilities will respond to more rooftop solar.
• Roz Pidcock at Carbon Brief is a really good “explainer” and this week she explains the difference between the surface and satellite temperature records. Although I have included other posts on this topic, I’m including this one because I think it is particularly good. Perhaps she should have been asked to explain the difference to John Christy who testified Tuesday at the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology chaired by Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas) during a hearing entitled “Paris Climate Promise: A Bad Deal for America.” One thing Pidcock explains is that the major heating of the atmosphere by an El Nino event occurs as the event is winding down. Consequently, England’s Met Office predicts that 2016 will be even warmer than 2015.
• At this time of year Arctic sea ice usually closes in around the northern and eastern coasts of Svalbard, 800 miles from the North Pole. But not this year. A recent cruise by a Norwegian ice-breaker found open water. Writing in Discover, Tom Yulsman describes the changes occurring in the Arctic and discusses their implications. Meanwhile, the area covered by Arctic sea ice in January was the lowest value recorded since record keeping began in 1979. It was 42,500 sq. miles less than the previous January record low, recorded in 2011.
• Although thermal expansion from warming waters is the major contributor to sea level rise on a global scale, many other factors can influence sea rise at a given locality. Unfortunately, several factors interact to make sea level rise along the U.S. east coast greater than the global average.
• During the winter of 2013/2014 relentless heavy rainfall and associated severe flooding caused extensive property damage in parts of southern England and Wales. A new study published Monday in Nature Climate Change has found that human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of the event by 43%. Two-thirds of the increase was caused by increased moisture in the atmosphere and one-third by changes in the path of the jet stream.
• One component of our climate system is natural variability, caused by the complex interactions among the various elements influencing climate. Natural variability is a major cause of all of the ups and downs (squiggles) in a global temperature chart. For some time now we have been experiencing an upward trend in temperature superimposed on those squiggles, i.e., global warming. An important question, however, is whether Earth would experience global warming in the absence of an external forcing, such as that caused by more CO2 in the atmosphere. In other words, could natural variability alone cause global warming. A study published Monday in Journal of Climate has found that it can’t, providing even more evidence that our current warming is indeed the result of increases in CO2.
• A new study by NOAA scientists published in the journal PLOS One has found that under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario, 16% of Atlantic marine species found off the U.S. coast from North Carolina to Maine are either very highly or highly vulnerable to climate change. Among the very highly vulnerable species are Atlantic Salmon and Bay Scallops. Eighty-two species were included in the study.
• The DC area, as well as other large cities in the northeast, has been experiencing fewer, but larger, snow storms than in the past. Jason Samenow of The Washington Post weather gang examines the possible link between this and global warming.
• A study published Thursday in the journal Geophysical Research Letters suggests that the southwestern U.S. may have already drifted into a drier climate state. The study did not attempt to determine whether the change was due to climate change or natural climate variability.
• A new study, published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports, shows that more than half of the highest CO2-emitting countries rank among the least vulnerable to climate change and nearly two-thirds of the countries with low or moderate CO2 emissions are acutely vulnerable to the effects.
  The new study provides a new way for policymakers to quantify inequality when it comes to tackling climate change.
• Recarbonizing Earth’s soils can reduce the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, thereby decreasing global warming, while simultaneously increasing soil productivity and increasing food security, according to soil scientists and some farmers.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

• First the bad news: A new report entitled Keep It in the Ground, released Monday by Greenpeace, Sierra Club, and 350.org, states that we are rapidly approaching Earth’s carbon budget required to keep warming below 2 degrees C and that if the world’s proven fossil fuel reserves are developed, we will miss the budget three times over. (Although outside of the time frame of this week’s roundup, last week Bill McKibben had an essay about fossil fuel infrastructure and the fight against it.) However, there is good news: In a study published Monday on-line in Nature Climate Change, NOAA and University of Colorado scientists report that the U.S. could slash its greenhouse gas emissions from electric power generation by 78% below 1990 levels within 15 years, all with renewable energy and still produce electricity for 10 cents/kWh, compared to a national average of 9.4 cents/kWh in 2012. An article in Science focused on the part of the study dealing with the power grid while an article in Scientific American emphasized the placement of the renewable energy facilities.
• Joe Romm of Climate Progress discussed projections by the International Energy Agency that renewables will be the world’s major source of electricity by 2030.
• On Monday the Supreme Court ruled in favor of an important clean energy resource, demand response. Utilities using demand response act to limit demand during peak power periods rather than ramping up supply, typically with fossil fuels.
• In a rather unorthodox move, a group of U.S. states led by coal producer West Virginia and oil producer Texas on Tuesday asked the U.S. Supreme Court to put a hold on President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan while its legality is considered by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit This action was taken after the Appeals Court refused to issue a stay.
• The first major energy bill in eight years cleared committee in a bipartisan 18-4 vote and moved on to the full Senate for debate. The White House said it has “concerns” with some provisions of the bill but did not threaten a veto. As of Thursday morning, 89 amendments to the bill had been offered and by the end of the day, four had been passed.
• The extension in December of the tax credits for renewable energy was an important step that will have big impacts on the deployment of renewables. Consequently, the U.S. wind industry is expecting 2016 to be even better for wind turbine installations than 2015, which saw 5,001 MW installed capacity in the 4th quarter.
• As part of the weird weather the world has been experiencing for the past few years, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere with its loopy jet stream, east Asia had a brutal cold snap last week, with more than 65 deaths.
• And of course, we had the big snow storm last weekend, which was probably influenced by global warming for a variety of reasons.
• On the other hand, Great Britain has been so warm that a New Year’s Day plant survey found that 612 species of plants were in bloom. Typically, 20 to 30 species bloom at that time of year. In addition, an article published Friday in the journal Environmental Research Letters reports that summer temperatures in Europe since 1986 are warmer than they have been in 2000 years.
• For much of the past three years the temperature of the Pacific Ocean south of Alaska and west of Canada has been anomalously warm. Nicknamed “The Blob”, this region has had major impacts on ocean productivity, as well as on several other phenomena, such as precipitation patterns over land. Now it appears to be breaking up, but no one knows when it might return.
• In a commentary about the impact of climate change on record-setting temperatures, Dana Nuccitelli quotes climate scientist Michael Mann: “The next time you hear someone call into question the threat of human-caused climate change, you might explain to them that the likelihood we would be witnessing the recent record warmth in the absence of human-caused climate change is somewhere between one-in-a-thousand and one-in-a-million. You might ask them: Would you really gamble away the future of our planet with those sorts of odds?”
• Chelsea Harvey also reported on the odds that the recent string of record-setting temperatures would have occurred in the absence of climate change. Furthermore, the current El Nino event is estimated to have contributed only about 10% of the warming observed last year.
• Ted Cruz keeps insisting that Earth hasn’t warmed since 1998. Chris Mooney at the Washington Post examines that claim while John Cook reports at The Conversation that as climate science gets stronger, denial of it does too. Scott Johnson provides a detailed explanation of how the various temperature records are compiled.
• A recent paper by German researchers in the U.S. journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reports that the contribution of thermal expansion of sea water to sea level rise has been underestimated by a significant amount. As a consequence, the authors estimate sea level to be rising at a global average rate of 2.74 mm/year, or about 1.08 in/decade.
• Barely a month after the historic Paris climate accord was signed, the resolve of the signatory nations is being put to the test by the declining price of oil. Impacts are being felt everywhere, but in the U.S. the main one is the increased purchase of light trucks and SUVs. Meanwhile, the World Bank projects that crude oil prices will remain below $40 a barrel throughout 2016.
• The World Resources Institute has a very informative piece about what will be required for the Paris Agreement to take effect. It’s not yet a done deal.
• Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Tuesday that the Canadian government would consider greenhouse gas emissions associated with all pipelines and liquefied natural gas export terminals as proposed facilities are undergoing environmental review.
• The health of soils and their ability to provide important services depend on the diversity of their bacterial and fungal communities. Unfortunately, two recently published scientific papers report that the types of environmental changes associated with global warming, such as increased aridity, will negatively impact those microbial communities and reduce soil productivity, threatening the livelihood of millions of people.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

This week’s roundup of climate news is below.  Please pass it on to those you think might be interested.  If they wish to subscribe directly have them send an email to contactcaav [at] gmail.com.

• Another essay was posted to the Washington Post “In Theory” series on climate change after I mailed last week’s roundup. It is by Stephen Gardiner and is entitled “Why climate change is an ethical problem.” It is one of the clearest essays I have read on the difficulties of dealing with climate change as an ethical problem.
• Yale Climate Connections has compiled a list of 2015’s most significant scientific papers concerning climate science. While the material is not technical, it is of most interest to those who like to follow climate science. They have also compiled a list of new climate related books you may find of interest.
• Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is defined as the amount Earth would ultimately warm as a result of doubling the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. It is important as an indicator of the possible impacts of CO2 emissions. At the time of publication of? the IPCC 4th assessment report in 2007 there were two techniques for estimating ECS and they gave estimates between 2 and 4.5 degrees C, with a most likely value of 3 degrees C. Between 2007 and the publication of the 5th IPCC assessment report in 2013/14 another estimation technique was developed and it gave significantly lower ECS values, causing the IPCC to?the lower limit of possible ECS values. Now a study has found that the new assessment technique contains a flaw that causes it to underestimate ECS.
• The Japan Meteorological Agency and the independent group Berkeley Earth have both declared 2015 as the hottest year on record. NASA, NOAA, and other governmental agencies are expected to do the same next week.
• A major type is electric power generation that does not emit CO2 is hydroelectric generation. While most suitable hydroelectric sites have been exploited in the developed world, this is not the case in the developing world. Consequently, many countries in Asia and Africa are planning new hydroelectric dams. Unfortunately, dams are not without consequences. For example, a team of 39 aquatic ecologists, writing in the journal Science, has warned that if dozens of hydroelectric dams are constructed in the Amazon, Congo, and Mekong river basins the consequences could be devastating for freshwater biodiversity, putting one-third of the world’s freshwater fish at risk. One example is the potential impact on the aquatic productivity in Tonle Sap, southeast Asia’s largest lake.
• Arch Coal, the U.S.’s second largest coal company, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. As a consequence, coal mining companies accounting for more than 25% of U.S. coal production are currently in bankruptcy. Also, on Monday, shares of Peabody Energy Corp, the leading U.S. coal producer, hit a record low. In 2015 coal production hit its lowest level since 1986. On a related note, China’s coal imports fell by 30% last year.
• Currently, aircraft contribute about 2% of global CO2 emissions and the amount is expected to grow as the number of people flying increases in the future. In an effort to curb increases in CO2 emissions, NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research Center is investigating a number of ways in which the fuel efficiency of airplanes can be increased.
• One way in which CO2 is removed from the atmosphere is by the growth of phytoplankton (very small photosynthetic organisms) that take up CO2 in the ocean, grow, and then die and fall to the ocean floor. In the Southern Ocean around Antarctica, the growth of phytoplankton is limited by the amount of iron available in the water, which is very small. Scientists have now found that as giant icebergs (larger than 10 miles on a side) travel away from Antarctica they release iron that had been incorporated into them as the glaciers from which they came scoured the rock over which they traveled. This fertilizes the ocean, stimulating the growth of phytoplankton and helping with the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. More research will be needed to show just how important this is.
• New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Vermont, and Washington, DC are entering into discussions of how they might use market-based approaches to reduce CO2 emissions from the transportation sector.
• Do you or someone you know want to use more energy-efficient light bulbs, but just don’t like the nature of the light from CFLs and LEDs? Well, researchers at MIT may be on the way to providing an incandescent light bulb with an energy efficiency exceeding that of any other technologies available today.
• Murres, common Alaskan seabirds, have been dying in large numbers from starvation. The cause is thought to be loss of forage fish due to warming waters caused either by climate change or El Nino. Unfortunately, these are not the only die-offs that have been observed around the globe recently, all of which may be related to a changing environment. In addition, a recent study has predicted that by mid-century salmon and herring, the fish species relied upon by Canada’s First Nations people, will have moved so far north that they will no longer be a reliable food source.
• Most of the growth in solar electricity installations has been driven by renewable portfolio standards (RPSs), of which Virginia has only a weak, voluntary one. Now, a new study has found that the benefits from strong RPSs are seven times greater than the costs associated with them. In addition, in 2015 the solar industry added jobs 12 times faster than the rest of the economy and now employs more people than the coal industry. Similar changes are being seen on a global scale where total investments in clean energy technology (solar plus wind) amounted to $329 billion in spite of falling prices for oil, gas, and coal. Unfortunately, the total amount of renewable energy in place in the U.S. is still so small that it is having only a minor effect on our CO2 emissions. Furthermore, traditional electricity providers are fighting rooftop solar with additional fees, which has a big negative impact on the industry.
• For the first time in the eleven years that the World Economic Forum has been conducting its survey of economists, a catastrophe caused by climate change ranks as the biggest potential threat to the global economy in 2016.
• A new report by the World Resources Institute finds that putting a price on carbon (either through a carbon tax or a cap and trade system) will have a bigger effect on CO2 emissions than that suggested by computer models run by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
• The National Hurricane Center announced on Thursday that subtropical storm Alex had been upgraded to a category I hurricane with sustained winds of 85 mph. This is the first time since 1938 that an Atlantic hurricane has formed in January and only the third time since hurricane record keeping began. It was downgraded to a tropical storm 24 hours later.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

The Weekly Roundup of Climate News for the week ending Jan. 8, 2016, is below. Please forward it to anyone you think might be interested, or I’ll be happy to add them to our distribution list. Just have them send an email to contactcaav [at] gmail [dot] com.

• In a series entitled “In Theory”, each week The Washington Post “takes on a big idea in the news and explores it from a range of perspectives.” This week the subject was the ethics of global warming and a primer was provided by Christine Emba. Essays were provided by Daniel Farber, Robert Brulle, John Nagle, Thomas Kostigen, and Eric Posner.
• If you would like a review of the top climate stories from 2015 check out Carbon Brief’s top 15.
• In case you missed the broadcast, BBC World Service had an excellent panel discussion entitled “The End of Oil.” It is both interesting and disturbing. Should be a must listen because it provides a picture of the difficulty of the task the world faces in keeping oil in the ground.
• We have been living in the geological epoch of the Holocene since the end of the last ice age. However, for the past several years scientists have proposed that we are in a new epoch, the Anthropocene, so named because of the impacts of humans on the planet. Later this year the question of whether to designate a new epoch will be considered by the geological organization that formally approves such time divisions. Meanwhile, a new study, published Thursday in the journal Science, provides one of the strongest cases yet that Earth has entered a new epoch.
• Given the warm December that we in the Valley experienced last year, it would be easy to expect that 2015 was the hottest year on record in the U.S. However, this was not the case, according to NOAA. Rather, 2015 was second to 2012. Nevertheless, high temperature records were broken all over the eastern U.S. Meanwhile, in the U.K., not only were high temperature records broken, but rainfall records as well, leading to massive flooding. In fact, December was the wettest month ever recorded in the U.K. (Note, 25.4 mm = 1.0 inch.) The flooding has been linked to climate change by some scientists.
• In spite of increasing global temperatures, denial of climate change and humans’ role in it is strong and well, at least in the U.S., according to two studies recently published in scientific journals. One examined the role of conservative think tanks in generating and perpetuating denial, while the other looked at the diffusion of doubt through social media.
• India has been planning to increase its use of coal as its economy develops. Now the low prices associated with two big solar projects are calling those plans into question, with many thinking that coal imports will cease by 2017. Also, according to the state-run Xinhua News Agency China will not approve any new coal mines for the next three years. Finally, two large Oregon utilities have agreed to support legislation that would phase out coal-fired power in Oregon by 2030. This is all great news. On the other hand, Zimbabwe has gotten up to 50% of its electricity from hydro-power, but two years of severe droughts have dropped water levels so low that the country is having to turn to diesel, natural gas, and coal for electricity production. This is bad news.
• Water is very important to electricity production by thermal generation (coal, natural gas, and nuclear) in addition to hydroelectric generation. Water availability is of main concern for the latter, whereas both availability and suitable temperature are crucial to the former. Climate change will impact both the temperature and availability of surface water; hence a new study has examined how it will affect the productivity of electric generation facilities. Carbon Brief provides maps showing where the major impacts will occur.
• When melting occurs in a place like Greenland much of the melt water is trapped by the firn (the porous layer of built-up snow that has not yet been compressed into ice) and does not run off into the ocean, where it would contribute to sea level rise. A new study published in Nature Climate Change has found that in West Greenland dense ice layers are forming above the firn, making it impossible for melt water to reach it, causing it to immediately run off instead. This also changes the surface characteristics of the ice sheet, making it absorb more solar heat and melt faster.
• Aircraft contribute around 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions and that number is expected to grow by 3 to 4% a year due to increased air travel. To counteract those contributions to emissions, NASA has been conducting research on ways to increase the fuel efficiency of aircraft. If all of their recommendation were implemented, fuel consumption would be reduced by more than 80 billion gallons over the next 25 years.
• Statoil has received a contract from the Norwegian government to study the storage of carbon dioxide in the Norwegian continental shelf. The study will be carried out at three locations in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea.
• Later this year Chevrolet will have a new entry in the electric car market, the Chevy Bolt. It will have a range of around 200 miles and can be charged to 80% capacity in 30 minutes. The main competitor to electric cars as the clean energy car of the future is a fuel cell powered car. The current drawback of fuel cell cars is the production of hydrogen, which is their fuel. According to a recent paper in Nature Chemistry scientists at Indiana University have developed a biological catalyst that can split water into hydrogen and oxygen, providing a more rapid and cleaner technology for hydrogen production than is currently available.
• TransCanada Corp, the company behind the Keystone XL pipeline has announced two legal challenges to President Obama’s rejection of the pipeline. One of those challenges, based on provisions in free trade agreements, constitutes a significant threat to our environmental regulations. The potential impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is discussed in a blog by Ben Beachy, a senior policy adviser for the Sierra Club’s Responsible Trade Program. Ayehsa Rasco of Reuters has analyzed the hurdles that the challenges face.
• On Wednesday the Agriculture Department announced that wildfires in the U.S. burned a record 10.1 million acres in 2015 and required the Forest Service to spend 52% of its budget fighting them. Both scientists and forest agency officials saw a link between climate change and the costly fire season.
• As one might expect, droughts and heatwaves affect grain production negatively. Now scientists have been able to quantify the impacts for both developed and developing nations. According to a paper in the journal Nature the overall average loss in annual crop yields was 10% compared to the three years preceding an event.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

• Ivy Main has a new blog post about the implications of current policy barriers in Virginia on investments in solar energy. She also has one concerning the order by the State Corporation Commission requiring Dominion Virginia Power to refund $19.7 million to its customers.
• Does climate change bum you out? Tired of hearing about all of the things that are happening? Well perhaps you need to join in singing the “Climate Change Deniers’ Anthem” with January Jones and others at Funny or Die.
• David Waskow and Jennifer Morgan of the World Resources Institute summarize the key provisions and highlights from the Paris Climate Summit.
• Now that the climate negotiators have all gone home from Paris, the big question is just what exactly does the climate agreement mean for the future. Robinson Meyer of The Atlantic and Oscar Reyes of Foreign Policy in Focus provide postmortems on the Paris Climate Summit, with the former a little more optimistic than the latter. John Vidal of The Guardian lists five reasons to be gloomy and five reasons to be glad about the agreement. Chris Mooney of The Washington Post provides a look at what may lie ahead while Richard Heinberg of the Post Carbon Institute lays out nine issues for climate (and world) leaders to think about.
• CarbonBrief has an interactive map that helps us visualize various countries’ contributions to greenhouse gas emissions over time.
• On Friday both the House and the Senate passed the new spending bill that has important energy provisions in it. As far as climate change is concerned, the bill has both positive and negative impacts. On a positive note, the subsidies for both wind and solar will be extended for five more years, but on the negative side, the ban on the export of crude oil has been lifted. Steven Mufson and Chris Mooney both of The Washington Post provided analyses written before the final vote (which did not change the provisions in the bill). In addition, the bill does not restrict President Obama from contributing to the Green Climate Fund designed to help poorer countries adapt to climate change.
• Naomi Oreskes, senior author of Merchants of Doubt, has an interesting opinion piece in The Guardian arguing that there is a new kind of denialism loose in the world – that we can’t meet our energy needs by renewable energy alone. On the other hand, Michael Specter, writing in The New Yorker, has pushed back against Oreskes for using such a loaded word as denialist to characterize four prominent climate scientists who happen to think that the world’s energy needs can’t be met by renewable energy alone.
• One thing to watch next year in the renewable energy area is energy storage. For example, AES, a large energy company, has announced that it is gaining access to 1 gigawatt-hour of lithium ion batteries from LG Chem. The batteries will be used to provide large scale grid energy storage to utility companies.
• The latest national survey by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communications has found that 36% of registered voters are more likely to vote for a presidential candidate that supports strong action on climate change whereas only 16% are more likely not to.
• Here’s surprising news. According to a study from Carnegie Mellon University, following the USDA nutritional guidelines to eat more fruits, vegetables, dairy, and seafood is more harmful to the environment than eating a less healthy diet. However, before you rush out and stock up on bacon, you might want to consider some of the caveats associated with the study.
• Kiritimati, the largest atoll in the world, is part of Kiribati in the Pacific. It provides a unique site for studying the impacts of ocean warming on coral reefs because its reefs vary from pristine to very impacted by human activity. Typically, water temperatures around Kiritimati hover near 81 degrees F. However, this year, because of the strong El Nino water temperatures have reached as high as 88 degrees, leading to extensive coral bleaching and, in some cases, death. Nevertheless, another study has shown that with proper management, reefs can recover.
• A new study has found that fish populations around the globe have experienced a decline in their ability to reproduce and replenish themselves. The pattern of decline is tied closely to a decline in phytoplankton, the food for young fish, that is associated with climate change.
• NOAA released its latest Arctic Report Card at this year’s American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco. Not surprisingly, the Arctic continues to deteriorate, experiencing record warm temperatures. Carbon Brief’s Roz Pidcock presents a summary of its most important findings.
• A massive new study just reported on in the journal Nature found that Greenland has lost over 9 trillion tons of ice since 1900. More disturbingly, the rate of ice loss in the 2003-2010 period was more than twice that over the 1983-2003 period. Robert McSweeney at CarbonBrief provides a more detailed description of the findings.
• Lakes all over the world are warming due to climate change. This can impact algal blooms and other factors that impact the suitability of the lakes as water supplies.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.