Category: Climate News Roundup

It has been said that no problem or movement will ever be recognized by the bulk of the population until the artists get involved.  The musical expression of climate change was expanded by the composition of Concert Climat by jazz pianist and composer Joseph Makholm, which premiered in part during the Paris Climate Conference (COP 21) late last year. You can learn more about it here.  And on the subject of art and climate change, tech guru and programming analyst Andy Lee Robinson has produced an animated graphic of Arctic sea ice loss, accompanied by a piano composition of his own.

Climate

Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) gases were developed as refrigerants to replace chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), refrigerants that were destroying the ozone layer.  While HFCs have little impact on the ozone layer, it turns out that they are very powerful greenhouse gases, being as much as 10,000 times more powerful than CO₂.  Consequently, there is now a need to replace them.  Toward that end, nearly 200 nations have agreed to a legally-binding pact, built on the 1987 Montreal Protocol, to eliminate HFCs in a stepwise manner over the next several years.  Sophie Yeo at Carbon Brief explains why this matters.

There are two types of data sets used to assess whether and how much Earth is warming: instrumental surface measurements and mid-troposphere measurements made by satellite.  Those two types of data sets have not been in close agreement for the past 20 years, with satellite data showing less warming, and this has been capitalized on by those who argue against the existence human-caused climate change.  Now, a new paper in the Journal of Climate has found that after necessary corrections are made to the satellite data sets, the two types of temperature records are in much better agreement.

A new study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, links an increase in forest fire damage in the western U.S. to man-made climate change.  According to the authors, “···human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence.”

A couple of weeks ago I provided a link to climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe’s videos called Global Weirding, which illustrate why she is considered to be such a good communicator with the public about climate change.  Well this week, following her appearance at the White House with President Obama and Leonardo DiCaprio, John Schwartz of The New York Times profiles her.  He provides a few insights into good climate communication that we could all benefit from.  And speaking of good communication, John Abraham gives a shout-out to the new book, Caring for Creation, by Paul Douglas and Mitch Hescox, the latter of whom many of you will recognize because of his tireless work as leader of the Evangelical Environmental Network.  Finally, if you have been struggling with what to do, perhaps Bill McKibben’s advice will be helpful.

On Oct. 23 of last year, Hurricane Patricia, south of Mexico, briefly attained a wind speed intensity of 213 miles per hour, making it the strongest hurricane since 1960, when wind speed estimates were not as accurate.  Now a new study published in Geophysical Research Letters examines the factors that likely contributed to the extreme intensity.  Last week I included articles about Hurricane Matthew, but the rains from it have caused extensive flooding in North and South Carolina this week.  That flooding has resulted in additional deaths, as well as extensive property damage and untold human and animal suffering.  Matthew’s devastation of Haiti is an example of what climate experts see as the disproportionate burden that global warming can have on poor, unprepared communities.  Finally, speaking of flooding caused by tropical storms and hurricanes, a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Science has found that under a moderate emissions scenario, rising sea levels and changing tropical storms mean that Sandy-like floods could occur as often as every 23 years.  Of course, we’re currently on a path of much higher emissions than this scenario.

South Florida is on the front lines of sea level change and is being forced to adapt.  Many people there “get it” and are working on adaptation.  Maybe the things they are doing will lead the way for other coastal communities in their adaptation efforts.

Two recent studies in Geophysical Research Letters examine the linkage between surface melting, which forms supraglacial lakes, and the drainage of those lakes, which forms underwater plumes.  An author of one of the papers had this to say about the linkage: “I think this is a potential feedback.  The more melt we have on the Greenland ice sheet, the more water drains down to the bed, the plumes are more vigorous, and they’re going to draw in more ocean water and transport heat to the ice. This is a direct ocean feedback that’s really going to amplify as there’s more melting on the ice sheet.”

Energy

The total energy consumed by industrialized nations peaked in 2007, and has completely decoupled from their economic growth, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported Monday.  This is due to improvements in energy efficiency, which are now providing $540 billion a year in energy cost savings for IEA-tracked countries.  Also according to the IEA, energy intensity, which measures the amount of fuel consumed per unit of GDP, fell 1.8% last year, triple the average rate over the past decade and more than the 1.5% reduction in 2014.  Meanwhile, the World Energy Council has predicted that global demand for energy per capita will peak in 2030, thanks to new technology and stricter government policies.

Oil company BP is not worried about electric cars decreasing the demand for oil.  The clean-energy research unit of Bloomberg LP estimates that electric cars will displace 13 million barrels of oil a day by 2040.  However, BP projects oil demand will increase by about 20 million barrels a day over the next 20 years, with about a quarter of supply going to passenger cars.  BP thinks electric cars will have a bigger impact from 30 to 50 years into the future.  On the other hand, the number of electric cars on the world’s roads is set to pass the 2 million mark by the end of 2016, with China leading the way, followed by Europe and the U.S.  Finally, every new or refurbished house in Europe will need to be equipped with an electric vehicle recharging point, under a draft EU directive expected to come into effect by 2019.

Carbon capture received a boost this week with the announcement by Anglo-Indian firm Carbon Clean Solutions Limited (CCSL) that they have been operating their system at 97% efficiency on a 10 MW power plant in India at a cost of $27 per ton of carbon captured.  Other systems have achieved lower efficiencies at costs 2 to 3 times higher.  The secret lies in a new solvent developed by CCSL.  The World Coal Association said the news was “genuinely very exciting.”  True.  We should all hope that it works out as claimed because scientists are concerned that current carbon capture technologies are insufficient to allow negative emission technologies to be employed to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere after we overshoot the 2°C goal.

Major investors have warned automobile manufacturers that they must put climate change specialists on their boards, engage better with policy-makers, and invest more heavily in low-emission cars if they wish to retain the investors’ support.  The demands come in a new report published this week by the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change.  In a similar vein, the Union of Concerned Scientists has released a methodical review of the world’s major fossil fuel producers that documents their poor performance in taking responsibility for their emissions of greenhouse gases and moving effectively to confront climate change.

Global wind capacity is set to hit 500GW by the end of 2016, accounting for around 5% of global power demand, according to the World Wind Energy Association.  On the other hand, global investment in clean energy fell to the lowest level in more than 3 years, according to a new report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.  Third-quarter spending in 2016 totaled about $42.4 billion, down 43% from the same period last year.

According to a filing on Tuesday, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission failed to undertake a “proper” analysis of climate change in its final environmental impact statement for the 160-mile Leach Xpress natural gas pipeline

Buildings consume more energy than industry and transportation, even though the public seldom thinks about them as a source of greenhouse gases.  However, lots of folk in Colorado have thought about buildings’ connection to climate change and are acting to lower buildings’ contribution.  This blog post from Rocky Mountain Institute gives several examples of low-energy-use buildings.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

The big news this week is that sufficient countries have signed onto the Paris Climate Agreement to allow it to go into force, which will happen Nov. 4.  CarbonBrief has an explanation of what that implies. President Obama hailed the milestone as “historic”, but House Speaker Ryan said it “would be disastrous for the American economy.”  Presidential candidate Donald Trump has promised to “cancel” the agreement if he is elected.  Writing in Fortune, David Z. Morris presents three options whereby Trump could stop U.S. participation.  Because of the threat that poses, climate scientist Michael Mann has written about “the irreparable harm that would be done by a climate change-denying, anti-science-driven Trump presidency.”

Climate

The Pew Research Center has released the results of a new poll on the views of the American public on climate change.  While some of the findings were not surprising, what really startled me was the low regard and deep distrust with which many view climate scientists.  Nevertheless, one thing the public was united on is support for more wind and solar power.  Solar Pulse, a Denver-based energy company, found that over the past five years Californians in Republican leaning areas were more likely to buy solar panels for their homes than those in Democratic areas.  In a display of bipartisanship, Representatives John Delaney (D-MD) and Chris Gibson (R-NY) have introduced the Delaney-Gibson Climate Solutions Commission Act (H.R. 6240), which would bring together the two political parties to create a 10-member commission to find agreement and create action on climate change.  Finally, if you have been struggling with what you can do help fight climate change, perhaps a letter to a loved one in the future will help clarify your thinking and move you to action.  That is the premise behind DearTomorrow, a nascent project that’s archiving letters about climate change written by people to their future children, selves, or family.

As Hurricane Matthew leaves the Caribbean and impacts the southeastern U.S. Joe Romm lays out the evidence that it has been made more severe by climate change.  However, as Chris Mooney of The Washington Post points out: “So in sum — even as people will inevitably invoke climate change to discuss Matthew, any precise attribution remains complex and the science isn’t settled on precisely what is happening with hurricanes in the Atlantic.  Still we’re living in a warming world with more moisture and higher seas, and it’s hard to dispute that that matters.”

A new report released on Thursday documents that three-quarters of 276 U.S. National Parks are experiencing an earlier onset of spring.  Half of the parks studied are experiencing “extreme” early springs.

According to a new study, published in Science Advances, without significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the likelihood that the American southwest will have a megadrought (> 35 years duration) this century is 99%.  However, keeping global temperature rise to no more than 2°C would cut this risk by half.  Meanwhile, as the drought continues in California, water conservation is declining.

James Hansen (and a group of 11 coauthors) has again published a manuscript in an open discussion journal, Earth System Dynamics Discussion, where it can be reviewed until November 15, 2016.  As with the previous paper published in this way, some have reacted critically, particularly because the manuscript was developed in support of a lawsuit by Hansen and a group of young people seeking to force more ambitious climate action.  The paper concludes that “Continued high fossil fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, possibly implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both···.”

Energy

A new study, published in the journal Nature, has both good news and bad news about methane emissions to the atmosphere.  The bad news is that methane emissions from the oil and gas industry are 20-60% greater than had been thought.  The good news is that anthropogenic methane emissions have fallen as a fraction of production, from 8% in the mid-1980s to around 2% in the late 2000s and early 2010s.  In addition, the study found that methane emissions from fossil fuel activities accounted for less than half of the total.

While many have cheered the decline in the use of coal for power generation because of high CO₂ emissions, coal is still very much in demand globally.  In fact, Reuters says that “talk of coal’s demise is proving premature, with prices soaring from 10-year lows this year and further rises on the cards into 2017 as the ‘dirty’ fuel continues to be very much in demand for power generation”. It adds that “following half a decade of steady decline, thermal coal physical and futures prices have all rallied between 50% and 80% this year, taking many in the industry by surprise.”  Nevertheless, Anders Runevad, CEO and Group President of Vestas Wind Systems A/S, thinks that the future belongs to renewables, although some question whether the European wind industry is being driven to unrealistically low prices because of intense competition.

On Monday Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced to the House of Commons that Ottawa will impose a $7.62 per metric ton minimum tax on carbon commencing in 2018, which will rise by $7.62 each year until it reaches $38.11 per metric ton in 2022.  Unsurprisingly, this announcement met with a range of reactions from the various provinces.  Across the border, in Washington State, a ballot initiative to enact a revenue neutral carbon tax is meeting opposition from a surprising quarter.  The story is a precautionary tale for those proposing carbon taxes.

The Virginia Chapter of the Sierra Club organized a press conference on Tuesday morning where a diverse group of community leaders voiced concerns about the increase in CO₂ emissions proposed in Dominion Virginia Power’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).  The Sierra Club is participating in the State Corporation Commission’s proceedings on Dominion’s IRP.  Meanwhile, in a letter dated Wednesday (Oct. 5), the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Office of Energy Projects approved construction of Transcontinental Gas Pipeline Co. LLC’s (Transco) Virginia Southside Expansion Project II, which would serve the needs of Dominion Virginia Power to fuel a new 1,580 MW power plant it plans to build in Greensville County, VA.

International aviation is currently responsible for about 2% of worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases.  Thus, it is significant that on Thursday governments from more than 190 countries adopted a measure that could force air carriers to take major steps to improve the fuel economy in their routes and fleets.  The accord will take effect in 2021.  It was necessary because international aviation was not covered by the Paris Climate Agreement.  Both critics and supporters of the measure noted that much work remains to be done before the agreement is put into effect.

According to a new report issued by the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, “the investment choices we make even over the next two to three years will start to lock in for decades to come either a climate-smart, inclusive growth pathway, or a high-carbon, inefficient and unsustainable pathway.”  It also said that the subsidies paid to support fossil fuels, amounting to $550 billion worldwide in 2014, represent “fundamental price distortions” in the market place and must be phased out by 2025 at the latest.

The Petra Nova carbon capture system, under construction at a coal-fired power plant southwest of Houston, will go online before the end of the year.  It will be the largest post-combustion carbon capture system installed on an existing power plant in the world.  The CO₂ captured will be used for enhanced oil recovery.  In addition, Norway will invest $45m in research for CO₂ capture and storage technology for three industrial plants: a cement factory, an ammonia plant, and a waste incinerator.

According to EPA data released on Tuesday, CO₂ emissions from power plants declined 6.2% last year relative to 2014.  In addition, emissions from large industrial sources dropped 4.9%.

A study published in the journal Energy Policy argues that when the “fuel rebound effect” is properly accounted for, 3 gallons of corn-derived ethanol must be burned to avoid burning one gallon of petroleum-derived gasoline.  The findings led the researchers to conclude that America’s renewable fuel standard “actually leads to a net increase” in greenhouse gas emissions.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

 

“On September 20, 2016, 375 members of the National Academy of Sciences, including 30 Nobel laureates, published an open letter to draw attention to the serious risks of climate change. The letter warns that the consequences of opting out of the Paris agreement would be severe and long-lasting for our planet’s climate and for the international credibility of the United States.”

Oral arguments on the legality of the Clean Power Plan will be heard on Tuesday, September 27 before the Court of Appeals of the D.C. Circuit.  Judge Nina Pillard, who was appointed by President Obama, has been added to the list of judges hearing the case, bringing the number of judges appointed by Democrats to six.  Four justices have been appointed by Republicans.  Bloomberg has a summary of what you need to know about the case.  The Environmental Defense Fund’s Martha Roberts summarizes the health implications of the plan.

Climate

I mentioned last week that NASA had declared August to be tied with July as the hottest month since record-keeping began in 1880.  Now NOAA has declared that not only was August a record breaker, it extended the streak of record-breaking hottest months to 16.  In addition, the summer period (June through August) was also the warmest on record, 0.07°C warmer than the summer of 2015, the previous record holder.  Of course, a major question is what will happen in the future.  NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt had an interesting post entitled “Why We Don’t Know If It Will Be Sunny Next Month but We Know It’ll Be Hot All Year.”

Thirty-one additional countries joined the Paris climate agreement on Wednesday, bringing the total to 60, thereby exceeding one of the thresholds for the agreement to go into effect.  The other threshold is that the countries joining have cumulative CO₂ emissions exceeding 55% of the global total.  The 60 countries that have joined so far have cumulative emissions just below 48%, but U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and U.S. Secretary of State John F. Kerry expressed confidence that the 55% threshold would be passed before the end of the year.  On Thursday, EU climate commissioner Miguel Arias Canete said that the EU is on course to join the agreement during October, thereby bringing cumulative emissions above the required 55%.

A new study, published in Science Advances, has found that ice melt on Greenland has been underestimated by around 8%.  It turns out that Greenland has been rebounding faster than had been thought in response to glacial melting.  Consequently, past estimates of the impacts of post-glacial rebound led to inaccurate estimates of the amount of ice loss.  The study also suggests that the rapid ice loss recorded by satellite measurements over the last 20 years is not likely to be an anomaly, but part of a long-term trend influenced by climate change.

A new modeling study in the journal Nature Communications suggests that during the mid-Pliocene warm period, when the CO₂ content of the atmosphere was around 400 ppm (like today) and the temperature was 1-2°C warmer than today, the entire West Antarctic ice sheet had melted, driving some 10 ft of sea level rise.  In addition, the multi-kilometer thick ice that currently fills the extremely deep Aurora and Wilkes basins of the eastern ice sheet had retreated inland for hundreds of miles, driving sea level even higher.  This raises the question of whether we are in for similar events.

Complex Earth system models are used to make projections of future climate as CO₂ continues to be discharged to the atmosphere.  In those models, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are determined by the balance between the sources and sinks of the gas.  One sink is the soil.  A new study published in the journal Science suggests that scientists have overestimated the rate at which Earth’s soils take up CO₂.  As a consequence, soil’s carbon sequestration potential this century may be only half of what we thought it was, suggesting that reducing the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere will be harder than we had thought.

President Obama signed a directive on Wednesday telling 20 federal offices to develop a “federal climate and national security working group” to “identify the U.S. national security priorities related to climate change and national security, and develop methods to share climate science and intelligence information to inform national security policies and plans.”  Also on Wednesday, the National Intelligence Council released a report that states “Over 20 years, the net effects of climate change on the patterns of global human movement and statelessness could be dramatic, perhaps unprecedented.  If unanticipated, they could overwhelm government infrastructure and resources, and threaten the social fabric of communities.”

The Montreal Protocol of 1987 outlawed chlorofluorocarbons because of their negative impact on the ozone layer.  The major replacements for them as refrigerants were hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which subsequently were found to have global warming potentials of up to almost 15,000 CO₂ equivalents.  Now a loose coalition of more than 100 countries is working toward an early phase-out of HFCs.

Last week I included a study on the effects of increased temperature on wheat production.  This week a new study on the effects of both temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on the types of plants that grow in California grasslands was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.  It found that CO₂ levels above 400 ppm (the concentration today) had no effect, while higher temperatures had a negative effect.  In other words, CO₂ fertilization did not offset the negative effects of higher temperatures.  In addition, a study published in Nature Communications, used a new approach combining standard climate change models with maximum land productivity data to predict how the potential productivity of cropland is likely to change over the next 50-100 years as a result of climate change.

Energy

A new study by think tank Oil Change International (OCI) shows that burning the known fossil fuels in all coal mines or oil and gas fields currently existing or under construction would release sufficient CO₂ to push global average temperatures above the 2°C limit agreed upon in Paris.  Bill McKibben’s thoughts on this new study are in the New Republic.  On Thursday presidential candidate Donald Trump gave the keynote address at Shale Insights, an annual conference sponsored by the Marcellus Shale Coalition, a Pennsylvania-based pro-drilling group.  In his speech Trump reiterated his policy proposals that would open up vast regions of the United States to fossil fuel production.

Chevrolet this week confirmed the price of the all-electric Bolt at $37,495 and Brian Fung of The Washington Post had a chance to drive it.  His impressions are here.  Speaking of cars, the Rocky Mountain Institute issued a “truly sweeping report” on their future this week that forecasts that “peak car ownership in the United States will occur around 2020 and will drop quickly after that.”  This forecast depends on how rapidly autonomous vehicles are developed and electrification occurs, things that are likely to occur faster in urban areas than in the rest of the country.  It will be interesting to see what happens.

Atlantic Coast Pipeline LLC has signed Spring Ridge Constructors as lead construction contractor for the proposed 600-mile project to transport natural gas from West Virginia to eastern North Carolina.  Meanwhile, the Virginia Supreme Court agreed to hear an appeal of the 2004 survey law by Hazel F. Palmer, whose property in Augusta County lies in the path of the proposed pipeline, where it would tunnel beneath the Appalachian Trail into Nelson County.  On Thursday, Governor Terry McAuliffe was met by protestors unhappy about his support for the Atlantic Coast and Mountain Valley Pipelines as he arrived in Roanoke for a Clean Energy Business Roundtable.  Finally, a poll of 732 registered Virginia voters found that 55% disagreed with Governor McAuliffe’s support for the pipelines.

How low can it go?  According to the Abu Dhabi Electricity and Water Authority, six development teams competing for a 350-megawatt solar PV project offered preliminary bids below 4 cents per kilowatt-hour.  One coalition – Jinko Solar and Marubeni – offered a bid of 2.4 cents.  This is a new record low.

On Tuesday, Sustainable Development Technology Canada announced a project to link three widely dispersed microgrids in Toronto, Nova Scotia, and upstate Maine into a “transactive energy” framework.  Transactive energy is “the use of technical and economic signals to manage the exchange of electricity” and is one example of how systems with a large amount of distributed energy can be managed.  Perhaps if China had such a system it would be able to get more of its electricity from the many wind turbines it has installed.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

If you’re a fan of Tom Toles, the political cartoonist for The Washington Post, you may be interested to know that he and climate scientist Michael Mann have written a book entitled The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy.  The book is liberally illustrated with Toles’ great cartoons about climate change.  They also have a piece in the Post about “The Deniers Club.”

Writing on Think Progress, Natasha Geiling reports on the likely impacts of Donald Trump’s economic plan, released on Thursday, on the climate.  A consortium of scientific organizations compiled a list of 20 questions about science, engineering, technology, health and environmental issues for the four presidential candidates.  Scientific American has compiled and published their answers.  Section 3 deals with climate change.

Climate

August has tied July for the distinction of being the hottest month since record-keeping began in 1880, NASA said in a news release on Monday.

Polar bears use sea ice as their main hunting grounds, waiting near the edge and grabbing seals as they surface for air.  A new study in the journal The Cryosphere helps explain why the bears have been having a difficult time.  It turns out that there has been a decline in the number of ice-covered days in every region of the Arctic where the bears live.  In fact, 2016 turned out to be tied with 2007 for second place in minimum ice extent.  On a related note, scientists at a Russian weather station on Troynoy Island, north of Siberia, have driven away 10 adult polar bears and a number of cubs that had besieged them for two weeks.

I put in articles last week on the impacts of climate change on the Louisiana rains and subsequent flooding.  Establishing the connection was possible because of advances in attribution studies.  Graham Readfearn discusses attribution studies and summarizes some recent results.

A coalition of 25 military and national security experts has warned that climate change poses a “significant risk to US national security and international security” that requires more attention from the US federal government.

Wheat is the single most important grain crop in terms of human consumption.  Thus, it is a concern that a new study, published in Nature Climate Change, finds that projections using three different techniques all agree that rising temperatures are going to be bad for wheat production.  An important caveat is that there may be offsetting factors, such as increasing CO₂ levels, that reduce some of the impacts of temperature.

Barrow, Alaska is the northern-most town in the U.S., but it and the villages surrounding it face dire consequences as a result of rising seas, melting permafrost, beach erosion, and other changes associated with rising temperatures.  It is becoming apparent that it is only a matter of time before the town and villages must be moved.  Who will pay?

Energy

Ivy Main has posted her 2016 guide to Virginia wind and solar policy.  Too bad there is not more good news in it.

The Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation recommends that Mountain Valley reroute its 42-inch-diameter natural gas transmission pipeline in Montgomery County to avoid the Slussers Chapel Conservation Site and tributaries to a sinking creek that enters the Slussers Chapel Cave and Mill Creek.  Meanwhile, the company building the pipeline has been acquiring easements in Giles, Montgomery, Franklin and Pittsylvania counties.  Finally, a report from Synapse Energy Economics finds that the Mountain Valley and Atlantic Coast Pipelines are not needed to meet future energy demands.  Rather, they find that with a few modifications and upgrades, the existing system of natural gas pipelines is sufficient to meet the region’s peak demands through 2030.

The first sentence to a new post on Bloomberg Markets reads: “Rooftop solar, which has surged more than 1,000 percent since 2010, will barely grow at all next year.”  Residential installations are expected to only grow by 0.3% as utilities push back against mandates to buy the electricity and shifting tax policies curb demand.  Nevertheless, “America Has Seen 11 Consecutive Quarters with More Than 1 Gigawatt of Solar PV Installed,” although only about a third of that was residential.

The British government has approved construction of the Hinckley C nuclear power plant, which will supply 3.2 GW of electricity.  The proposal to build the plant has been highly controversial, from technical, economic, and national security perspectives because of the heavy involvement of China and France in the project.  In a piece posted July 28, Simon Evans of Carbon Brief provided extensive background information about Hinckley C in a Q & A format.  I have included this material because of the relevance of the economic and technical issues to new nuclear power plants in the U.S.  In addition, Debbie Carlson reviews the status of nuclear power in the U.S. for Guardian Sustainable Business.

A new report on world energy investments by the International Energy Agency looks at the global transition to a low-carbon energy system and finds a mixture of good news and bad news.  The good news is that “Wind, solar PV and electric-vehicle investments are broadly on a trajectory consistent with limiting the increase in global temperature to 2°C.”  Beyond that, things don’t look so good, particularly for investments in nuclear, carbon capture and storage, and alternative means of fueling transportation.  As Chris Mooney sums it up: “It all leads to a picture in which we are beginning to realize that while wind and solar and electric cars are great, they may also be the easy part.  We still have a great deal more to grapple with before we can get climate change under control.”

Because methane is a potent greenhouse gas, any climate benefits from shifting electric power generation from coal to natural gas (of which methane is the main component) depend on our ability to minimize fugitive methane emissions from natural gas drilling, collection, distribution, and storage operations.  Currently, the extent and trajectory of methane fugitive emissions are uncertain and a new study adds to that uncertainty.  Unlike some recent studies, it finds that methane leakage from fossil fuel activities was largely flat from 1984 until about 2000, and then increased sharply from that point on.

Wind energy is expected to contribute more to electricity generation as the country expands its renewable energy portfolio.  Thus, it is encouraging that a new study published in Nature Energy has found that costs are expected to decline, primarily as a result of larger turbines.  By 2030, the research finds, the average onshore wind turbine is expected to stand 115 meters tall (from the ground to the “hub,” where the rotor attaches) and to have a rotor diameter of 135 meters, generating 3.25 MW of electricity. Offshore turbines are expected to be even larger, at 125 meters tall with an average rotor diameter of 190 meters, generating 11 MW.  Relatedly, the Departments of Energy and the Interior released on Friday of last week a strategic plan to develop a national offshore wind industry.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

 

Last Saturday, Presidents Obama and Xi Jinping formally joined the Paris climate agreement in a joint event in China.  John Upton of Climate Central explains what that means.  The New York Times has an interesting interview with President Obama about climate change and his responses to it during his time in office.  Rocky Mountain Institute has recently completed a study with its collaborators of how China can reduce its carbon emissions while growing its economy.

Last week I provided a link to a new study that shows that belief in human-caused climate change has become subject to greater partisan polarization over the past few years.  Now, David Roberts has provided a more detailed summary of the study and some reflection on what it means for the future.  Dana Nuccitelli argues, based on a new study by Media Matters, that much of the increase in polarization is due to conservative media bias about climate change.  Finally, sociologist Arlie Russell Hochschild sheds some light on the conundrum of why people living in one of the most polluted areas of the country hate the EPA.

Climate

Scientists, working together through World Weather Attribution, have determined that climate change increased the chances of the August extreme rainfall in Louisiana by at least 40%.  Significantly, the lead author of the study also stated “we found that the mostly likely impact of climate change is a near doubling of the odds of such a storm.”  The team has submitted its results to the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, which means they are still subject to peer-review.  In addition, Peter Sinclair has a new post and video looking at the broad issue of the impact of climate change on extreme weather.

A new study, published in Nature Geoscience, has found that the power of Asian typhoons has increased by 50% in the past 40 years due to warming seas.

Andrew Rice has an interesting (but long) essay in New York Magazine about what the future of NYC will be as sea level rises in response to climate change.  Also, Justin Gillis has a very informative article in The New York Times about “recurrent flooding” or “sunny-day flooding” along the Atlantic coast as sea level rises.  The article is date-lined Norfolk.  Finally, as this article (and the recent Louisiana flooding) reminds us, you don’t have to live along the coast to experience flooding from extreme weather events.

Over the past few decades, in the United States the East has experienced colder winter days, while the West has experienced warmer winter days.  According to a new study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, the ‘warm West, cold East’ temperature gap is steadily expanding, and is likely being driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

Global warming is disrupting ocean life from plankton to whales and the heat may linger in the depths for centuries even if man-made greenhouse gas emissions are halted, according to a new report by the International Union for Conservation of Nature.  While polar bears, walruses and ice seals appear to be suffering as a result of the reduction in Arctic sea ice associated with global warming, humpback, fin and minke whales appear to be benefiting, according to a new study published in Biology Letters.

Land-use changes are among the many factors in addition to CO2 emissions that influence climate.  Thus it is disturbing to read about the rapid rate at which wilderness is being lost from the world, as documented in a new study in the journal Current Biology.  Perhaps this item got my attention because I am finally reading The Sixth Extinction by Elizabeth Kolbert, a book that really makes one pause and consider the future of life on Earth, even without the added impacts of climate change.

A new meta-study, published Thursday in the journal Science, examines the ways in which climate change is affecting people and our societies, affirming some that are well known and introducing others that are less recognized.

Energy

Dakota Access Pipeline’s private security unleashed attack dogs and sprayed mace on protesters over the weekend as tensions over the pipeline in North Dakota escalated into violence for the first time.  In a moving essay, Phil McKenna of Inside Climate News provides the background of the struggle.  Lisa Song reports on the destruction of some burial sites and the failure to get a restraining order for the pipeline construction.  Joe Heim writes about the transformation of the struggle into a national movement for Native Americans.  Friday afternoon a federal judge denied the Native American tribe’s request for an injunction that would have temporarily halted construction on the pipeline; however, shortly thereafter the Department of Justice, the Department of the Army, and the Department of the Interior issued a statement that read in part: “The Army will not authorize constructing the Dakota Access pipeline on Corps land bordering or under Lake Oahe until it can determine whether it will need to reconsider any of its previous decisions regarding the Lake Oahe site under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) or other federal laws.  Therefore, construction of the pipeline on Army Corps land bordering or under Lake Oahe will not go forward at this time.”

Dominion Energy Chairman and CEO Tom Farrell has said that the company has pushed back the date at which the Atlantic Coast Pipeline will go into service to early 2019.  He also said that FERC’s issuance of a Notice of Schedule on August 12 means that “FERC believes that the route is essentially complete.”  Reps. Bob Goodlatte, H. Morgan Griffith, and Robert Hurt sent a letter to the FERC requesting that they hold both one-on-one meetings and public hearings with constituents in Virginia pertaining to the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Mountain Valley Pipeline.

According to several studies, moving the U.S. away from our reliance on fossil-fuel derived electricity to almost total use of renewable energy will require a smart supergrid relying on high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission lines to be overlaid on our existing grid.  John Fialka of E&E Publishing has a three-part series documenting what will be required for its development.  Part One provides some background, Part Two deals with the impact of regulations on the development of the needed supergrid, and Part Three explains the benefits of a supergrid and the obstacles to its development.  If you can’t spare the time to read all three, I urge you to at least read Part Three.

A new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, entitled The Power of Change, examines the changes that will be required in how we get electricity if we are to achieve cleaner electricity production.  Among the steps that are proposed for the federal government to take is putting a price on pollution from electricity production to reflect the hidden costs of fossil fuels to human health and the environment.

Because of drought and insect infestations, the western United States contains millions of dead trees; 66 million in California alone.  Since those trees will decay or burn, releasing their CO2 to the atmosphere, a new study proposes that they be burned with coal in coal-fired power plants to reduce the fossil-fuel related CO2 emissions.  Not surprisingly, the proposal is controversial.

Matex Virginia Power LLC plans to build a 1,400 MW combined-cycle natural gas-fired power plant next to the southern branch of the Elizabeth River in Chesapeake, VA.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

 

A new study has found that climate change continues to become a more partisan issue as time goes on.  I find that to be so sad because you would think that we could at least agree on something as important as the future of humans on Earth.  A detailed report of the study was published in the journal Environment, but you can read a synopsis at Desmog.

As the world’s focus moved toward the G20 summit Sept. 4-5 and possible action by the U.S. and China on climate change, on Thursday (World Day of Prayer for the Care of Creation) the Pope once again spoke out about climate change and the environment.  The Guardian had a particularly strong and appropriate editorial about the Pope’s words.  Meanwhile, three insurers with a combined $1.2 trillion under management called upon the G20 nations to phase out all fossil fuel subsidies by 2020.  In addition, 30 mayors from cities including London, Paris, Tokyo, Sydney, New York, Cape Town and Rio de Janeiro urged national leaders to work with them to “build a low carbon, climate safe world”.

Climate

In 2000 Nobel-prize winning chemist Paul Crutzen and colleague Eugene Stoermer proposed that Earth had entered a new geological epoch because of human’s influence, bringing to an end the Holocene epoch.  They suggested the name Anthropocene for the new epoch.  Now, the Working Group on the Anthropocene of the International Union of Geological Sciences has voted in favor of Crutzen’s and Stoermer’s proposal, bringing it one step closer to formal adoption.

Ed Hawkins, the climate scientist who came up with the temperature spiral earlier this year, has developed a graphic that illustrates where the planet has warmed since 1850.  It contains 167 tiny maps of the world color-coded to show changes in temperature compared to 1850.  Even though it appeared last week, I just learned about this piece by Heidi Cullen showing projected maximum temperatures in the U.S. if we keep emitting CO₂ at the rate we are now.  The figures are shocking.  How will we adapt to that?

Although the area covered by Arctic sea ice started out the year very low, this year’s minimum extent is not likely to set a new record, thanks to lots of cloudy weather that slowed down the melt rate.  Rather, scientists anticipate that this year’s minimum extent will rank somewhere between 2^nd and 5^th.  Meanwhile, on the other side of the globe, the ocean around Antarctica has become less salty over the past couple of decades.  Writing in The Washington Post, Chelsea Harvey explains why that has been happening and what it could mean for the rest of the world.

Reconstructions of temperature data over the past 1,000 years by NASA and NOAA have revealed that Earth is warming at a rate 20 times faster than the historical average, prompting climate scientist Gavin Schmidt to declare that it is “highly unlikely” that humankind can keep warming below 1.5 C.

What do Vermont, West Virginia, and Maryland have in common?  They have all been impacted by heavy rainfall and topography that channeled the resultant runoff into raging rivers that caused significant damage to life and property.  Vermont’s floods were five years ago (remember hurricane Irene?) and now Vermonters are working to make their state more resilient.  Perhaps there are lessons there that we can use to make us less susceptible if (when?) we get a heavy storm here in the Valley.  One thing is certain, however, based on an analysis of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC): NFIP needs to shift its focus from a rebuilding program to a risk mitigation program.  For example, more than 2,100 properties have been rebuilt more than 10 times since 1978.

A new report by the Climate Institute finds that climate change will reduce the world-wide area suitable for growing coffee trees by half by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario.  Considering forests of the future, a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change suggests that more diverse forests are better at adapting to a changing climate.  This suggests that protecting the biodiversity present in the Amazon (i.e., trying to preserve as many different species as possible) is a key tool that conservationists can use to help the ecosystem survive climate change.

When plants grow in an atmosphere with higher CO₂ levels they lose less water through their pores, and thus don’t need to draw as much water from the soil, according to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.  This suggests that the impacts of climate change-induced droughts may not be as severe as current modeling suggests.  Let’s hope so.

Energy

According to Phil McKenna at Inside Climate News, “Senior officials at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and two other federal agencies raised serious environmental and safety objections to the North Dakota section of the controversial Dakota Access oil pipeline, the same objections being voiced in a large protest by the Standing Rock Sioux tribe that has so far succeeded in halting construction.”  Meanwhile, members of more than 150 Native American tribes have joined with the Standing Rock Sioux in their protest.

Although we tend to focus on the lawsuit against the Clean Power Plan (CPP), it is important to remember that the EPA regulation limiting CO₂ emissions from new coal- and gas-fired power plants is also under attack in the courts.  The Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit published a briefing schedule Tuesday for that lawsuit.  The final briefs are not due until Feb. 6, which means that the new president’s Justice Department attorneys will be responsible for the final briefs and for oral arguments in front of the judges.  In a new lawsuit filed last week at the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, WildEarth Guardians and Physicians for Social Responsibility asked the Court to require the federal government to consider the impacts of climate change when issuing oil and gas leases on public land.

The Federal Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit has ruled that DOE was correct in using the Social Cost of Carbon when doing cost/benefit analyses.   This is an important decision and will have impacts on other upcoming court cases dealing with climate change mitigation, such as the CPP.

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has completed a study of the ability of the Eastern Interconnection power grid to accept renewable energy.  The bottom line is that the grid could accept up to 30% “variable generation” in basically its present configuration, although changes would be required in how the grid and its power supplies would have to operate.  Geoffrey Heal, an economist at Columbia Business School, recently published a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper that asks what it would cost to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from power generation to 80% below their 2005 level by 2050.  Eric Roston discusses his findings on Bloomberg.  Finally, the operator of the largest U.S. power market said it can meet the goals of the CPP while limiting the impact on power prices to a less than 3% rise, thereby challenging claims by CPP opponents that meeting the mandates will have a variety of dire effects, including price spikes.

Although it has only five turbines, the nation’s first off-shore wind farm has been completed and is ready to start generating electricity this fall.  Meanwhile, on land, Iowa Utilities Board has approved a 2 GW wind energy project in Iowa.  When placed into service, it will be the largest wind energy project in the nation, employing 1,000 2 MW Vestas turbines.

Richard Martin, senior editor for energy at MIT Technology Review, has an interesting and sobering piece entitled “Why We Still Don’t Have Better Batteries.”

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

 

Let’s start with a little inspiration.  Ashton Hayes is a village of around 1000 nestled in the English countryside.  What makes it unique is that its residents have taken it upon themselves to reduce the village’s carbon footprint and have succeeded in doing so, while also having fun.  Les Anglais is a village of around 3000 in Haiti.  EarthSpark International has built a solar-powered microgrid in town that is currently supplying reliable power to around 2000 people at around 20% of the cost they had paid.

Climate

Arctic sea ice has not melted as rapidly this year as feared at the start of the melt season.  Consequently, it is unlikely that a record low ice extent will be seen by the time the minimum cover is experienced in September, unless something unexpected occurs.  Nevertheless, this hasn’t kept one person from predicting a new record low, much to the dismay of others.  In a guest post on Carbon Brief, Dr. Alexandra Jahn, from the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado, explores how accurately scientists can predict when the Arctic will see its first sea ice-free summer.

As spring light returned to Antarctica, scientists were stunned to find that the crack in the Larsen C ice shelf had grown by 14 miles, for a new total length of over 80 miles.  In addition, the width had expanded to over 1000 ft.  It is feared that sometime in the next few years, the crack will expand sufficiently to release an ice island the size of Delaware, thereby making the entire ice shelf less stable.

A new paper just published in the journal Nature reports on new paleoclimate data examining Earth’s temperature back to 1500.  Those studies suggest that human-caused warming began as early as 1830, but others disagree with the authors’ interpretation of their results.

In a beautifully illustrated essay at Mashable entitled “Cruel Summer: Floods, Fires and Heat”, Andrew Freedman connects the dots and argues that the fingerprint of global warming is increasingly apparent in events happening now.  Out west, populations of the American pika are vanishing in many mountainous areas as climate change alters its habitat, according to findings released Thursday by the U.S. Geological Survey.

The South China Morning Post reported on Thursday that it had learned that the leaders of China and the U.S. will announce their countries’ ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement prior to the G20 summit beginning in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, on September 4.  Brazil’s interim president Michel Temer reportedly wants for Brazil to ratify the pact ahead of the US and China.  Brazil has the 7th largest CO2 emissions.  Ed King of Climate Home discusses what will happen once ratification has occurred.

If we continue using fossil fuels at the rate we now do, scientists predict that sea level will rise 6 ft by 2100.  According to a new analysis by the real estate data firm Zillow, this would inundate nearly 1.9 million homes in the U.S., 46,000 of which would be in Virginia.  As expected, Florida would be the hardest hit state, with over 930,000 homes under water (literally).

Research published Wednesday in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives reveals that the number of people in Europe suffering from hay fever due to ragweed pollen could double in 35 years, with climate change being responsible for two thirds of this increase.  Here in the U.S., Climate Nexus and the American Public Health Association have teamed up to develop four infographics that illustrate the connection between climate change and a variety of health-related issues.  Jeremy Deaton and Mina Lee of Nexus Media introduce them in a guest post at Think Progress.

Energy

I have put in information previously about the question of using natural gas (methane) as a bridge fuel to allow us to shut down coal-fired power plants while waiting for wide-scale adoption of carbon-free energy sources.  Nevertheless, I thought that the discussion of the issue at Yale Climate Connections was sufficiently good to include it here.

Southern Co.’s nuclear unit and X-energy LLC have signed a memorandum of understanding to commercialize and use X-energy’s high-temperature, gas-cooled, advanced technology nuclear reactor.  The goal is to have the reactor ready for use in the 2027-2030 time-frame.

Chile accepted a bid from Spanish developer Solarpack Corp. Tecnologica for 120 megawatts of solar energy at the stunning price of 2.91 cents per kilowatt-hour.  This beats the 2.99 cents/kwh bid Dubai received recently for 800 megawatts, making it the cheapest unsubsidized power plant in the world.

Writing at Vox, David Roberts brings us up to date on the status of wind power in the U.S.  In addition, electricity generation from wind, solar, and other renewable energy technologies have set monthly records every month so far this year, based on data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy has released its 2016 International Energy Efficiency Scorecard.  Chris Mooney at The Washington Post summarizes how increases in energy efficiency in the U.S. since the mid-1990’s have helped to decouple GDP growth from energy use.  Kristen Satre Meyer at Ensia reports on how several nations fared on the Scorecard.  Germany came in first; we came in eighth.

Results of a new study funded by the American Petroleum Institute, published in the journal Climatic Change, find that burning ethanol derived from corn in cars results in more CO2 emissions than burning gasoline.  Others strongly disagree with the results.

“Tesla’s Elon Musk unveiled his new lithium-ion battery pack that can deliver an unprecedented 315-mile range for his electric vehicles (EVs). But SolidEnergy Systems, a new startup spun out of an MIT lab, says it is in the process of commercializing a lithium metal battery that can double the range of all existing EVs.”  Joe Romm argues that these developments are really big deals.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

Bill McKibben has a new article, entitled “A World at War” in The New Republic.  Then, on Vox Dave Roberts asks “Is It Useful to Think of Climate Change as a ‘World War’?”.

Climate

The big news this week has been the terrible flooding in Louisiana as a result of over 2 ft of rain in just a couple of days.  I’m sure you’ve read about it, so I won’t link to the news articles.  Rather, Chris Mooney had a good piece in The Washington Post about the relationship between the flooding and climate change.  He also has in interesting analysis entitled “‘A changing climate is and will continue to put people out of their homes’”  In addition, Angela Fritz of the Capital Weather Gang explained the meteorology of the event.

Both NASA and NOAA have analysed the global temperature record and declared July 2016 as the hottest month ever recorded.  The Japan Meteorological Agency agreed.  The record high temperatures are having impacts all over the world.  And, as Dana Nuccitelli explains, we have already locked in a lot more warming, just from the CO2 we’ve already emitted.

As if we didn’t have enough to be concerned about, a new study has found meltwater lakes on the surface of the coastal Langhovde Glacier in East Antarctica.  Such lakes can have a number of negative impacts on glacier stability.  While it is too early to say just how important these lakes will prove to be, their presence has scientists concerned.  Another new concern that is just becoming evident is the formation of marine heatwaves, often referred to as blobs, that persist and cause extensive damage to marine ecosystems.  Michael Slezak provides a primer on them at The Guardian.

The Amazon rain forest is considered to be a major sink for the CO2 we emit into the atmosphere.  Because of the increased incidence of drought and fire in the forest, there is concern that its nature may be changing, as explained in this piece from Yale Climate Connections.

And now for some good news: TV meteorologists are finally getting it and starting to explain to their audiences the links between what is happening in the weather and climate change.  This is a huge change because TV meteorologists are typically the only scientists most people ever encounter.  Be sure and watch the first video at the link, but be prepared for some chilling footage from the Ellicott City, MD flooding on July 30.

Japan and New Zealand have announced that they will ratify the Paris Climate Agreement in 2016, but they are being criticized for the weakness of their commitments.  Meanwhile, China’s lawmakers will consider ratification at a meeting at the end of this month.  The agreement will go into force when 55 countries representing at least 55% of global emissions have ratified it.  With the announcement of Japan and New Zealand, 57 countries have now indicated they will ratify or have already ratified the agreement by year’s end.  They account for 57.88% of global emissions, according to Climate Analytics.

According to new studies, insurance companies are lagging in their adaptation to climate change.  One bad practice by states is the capping of insurance premiums for houses in vulnerable areas, such as coastal regions.  This passes costs on to policy holders in other areas and removes incentives for those in the vulnerable areas to take protective action.  On a related topic, Chelsea Leu takes a look at floodplain maps and their impacts on who must be insured.

Energy

One of the most interesting articles I read this week on energy has to do with power company NRG Energy and its efforts to integrate clean energy sources into its portfolio.  It is a cautionary tale, but perhaps one that the executives at Dominion have taken too much to heart, making them too cautious.  Similarly, the French oil company Total SA is following a very different path from most major oil companies, and investing heavily in renewables and batteries.  David Ferris and Saqib Rahim of EnergyWire examine Total’s strategy and what it may mean for their future.

A growing segment of the solar market is community solar.  Under community solar, consumers who buy into a project don’t directly use the energy produced.  That’s sold to a local utility.  Instead, participants continue to buy power from their local providers, but their electric bills are reduced, based on how much the utility buys from the project.  Also, community projects use the grid to deliver power, and help pay for maintaining the utilities’ infrastructure.  That makes them less of a threat to traditional power companies.  Is there a place for this in Virginia?  Perhaps so, if VA SUN is successful in swaying the VA legislature with its “solar rights” petition drive.

I provided links last week to blog posts about the new fuel economy standards for large trucks, buses and other heavy-duty vehicles.  Well, on Tuesday, the Obama administration issued the final version of those standards.  These Phase 2 standards will impacts trucks in the 2021 to 2027 model years.  Phase 1 standards are currently in effect through model year 2020.  Here is another blog post from EDF about the new standards.

The U.S. Energy Information Agency has projected that CO2 emissions from natural gas will exceed those from coal in 2016.  However, emissions from petroleum still exceed either of the other two fuels.  As far as emissions of natural gas (methane) itself, a new study has found that aircraft-based sensors are capable of identifying super-emitters, allowing the focus of mitigation efforts to be placed on them.

Generating electricity by burning biomass is not as benign as one might think, and that is putting some politicians at odds with EPA as it tries to come up with meaningful regulations for the industry at a time it is having difficulty competing with cheap natural gas.

Is an electric car right for you?  A new MIT study has found that “Roughly 90 percent of the personal vehicles on the road daily could be replaced by a low-cost electric vehicle available on the market today, even if the cars can only charge overnight,” according to the study’s senior author.  Simon Evans has an analysis of the study on Carbon Brief and Chris Mooney has a commentary in The Washington Post.

Native American and environmental activists from all over the country have gathered in a remote part of North Dakota to take a stand against the North Dakota Access Pipeline, which tribal members say threatens to pollute drinking water and damage sacred sites.  More recent news indicates that the developers of the pipeline have agreed to stop construction until a federal court hearing next week in Washington, DC.  Meanwhile, just as property rights issues have been used to fight against natural gas pipelines, they are also being used to fight electric power transmission lines planned to carry wind energy from the Oklahoma panhandle to Southeastern states.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

 

Carbon Brief’s U.S. Election Tracker has been updated to include Trump’s positions outlined in his speech in Detroit on August 8.  A group of more than 50 science organizations is working to have the presidential candidates address key science issues, including climate change.

Bill McKibben had an opinion piece in the “Sunday Review” of The New York Times discussing the stalkers that follow him and his family.  Ben Jervey provides some background on DeSmog about those responsible for funding the stalkers.

Climate

National Geographic Channel will premiere Season 2 of the critically-acclaimed TV series, “Years of Living Dangerously” on Sunday, October 30 at 8 pm (ET).  There is a trailer at the link, as well as an article.  Note that the regular time for the series will be Wednesdays at 10:00 pm, starting with episode 2 on November 2.

Climate scientists have expressed some very sobering thoughts about the likelihood of being able to keep global warming below the aspirational goal of 1.5 C set last December at the Paris Climate Summit.

Conclusions about changes in Arctic sea ice extent are typically based upon the satellite record, which begins only in 1979.  Because of the short length of this record, scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center examined a number of other sources containing information about Arctic sea ice extent in an effort to extend the length of the data record.  These included such things as whaling ship logbooks, aerial surveys, and maps from meteorological agencies.  In a guest post on Carbon Brief, scientist Florence Fetterer summarizes their findings.  If you just want the bottom line, scroll to the end of the article and look at the last two figures.  They are startling.

A federal appeals court has ruled that it is valid for the government to include the cost of climate change (in the form of the social cost of carbon) when conducting cost-benefit analyses of new regulations.

A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science has found that rising sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic are likely to be behind a recent surge in cases of diarrheal diseases from marine bacteria in northern Europe and the US east coast.  Chris Mooney also reported on the study in the Washington Post.

In a live telephone town hall call-in on Tuesday, Congressman Bob Goodlatte stated that we would be better off spending money to adapt to climate change rather than trying to mitigate it.  He should read the editorial in Monday’s New York Times about the many countries that will need help in adapting.  And, he should read BBC correspondent Justin Rowlatt’s thoughts on what he has observed in India.  Perhaps they will cause him to reconsider his position.  Even more important, if you live in the 6^th district, you can let him know that you care about climate change.  Just give him a call at 202-225-5431.

A heat wave in the Middle East is shattering records all over the region.  For example, the temperature in Jiddah, Saudi Arabia, reached an all-time high of nearly 126 F.  Unfortunately, the heat wave is expected to continue.  Here is the U.S., 2016 through July was the third warmest year on record according to data released by NOAA.  In addition, Florida and New Mexico experienced their hottest Julys on record.

Energy

Last week New York’s governor announced a plan that would effectively subsidize the state’s nuclear power plants by forcing the utilities that rely on them to pay “zero emission credits” to the operators of those reactors.  As a consequence, Exelon, the country’s biggest nuclear power producer, announced it would rescue one of those power plants from being shut down.  Meanwhile, Pacific Gas & Electric has submitted a proposal to the California Public Utilities Commission to close both units at the Diablo Canyon nuclear facility near San Luis Osbispo by 2025, replacing its electricity generation with a combination of renewable sources, energy storage, better energy efficiency, and changes to the power grid.  Closer to home, as noted by Mark Chediak on Bloomberg Markets, “Utilities including Duke Energy Corp., Dominion Resources Inc. and NextEra Energy Inc. are being allowed by regulators to charge $1.7 billion for reactors that exist only on paper, according to company disclosures and regulatory filings.  Duke and Dominion could seek approval to have ratepayers pony up at least another $839 million, the filings show.”

Heavy duty vehicles, such as long-haul trucks, are major consumers of fossil fuel.  Consequently, five years ago President Obama announced the first fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas standards for them.  In 2011 the Obama administration finalized Phase 1 of the Clean Truck standards, which are beginning to have an impact on fuel consumption.  In recognition of these standards, the Environmental Defense Fund has published a series of blog posts about changes in heavy duty trucks.  The first summarizes the economic and environmental benefits of the Phase 1 standards.  Phase 2 standards are currently being formulated and will build on the success of Phase 1.  Finally, Jason Mathers has compiled statements from a variety of sources showing the broad support for the Clean Truck standards.

Last week I provided a link to an article about the cost of replacing aviation fuel with biofuel, thereby reducing the carbon footprint of flying.  The information in the article came from a new report by the International Civil Aviation Authority.  Now Carbon Brief has examined the report to ask how much of the remaining carbon budget for keeping warming below 1.5 C will be used by aviation under several scenarios.  If aviation continues to grow at its current rate and makes no changes in the type of fuel it uses, it will consume 27% of the carbon budget by 2050.  Even if it succeeds in switching to 100% biofuels by 2050 and makes technological improvements to its fleet, aviation will still consume 12% of the remaining carbon budget.

A study of methane emissions in Indianapolis, IN, and its comparison to an earlier study in Boston, has revealed that many sources of methane leakage are unknown and perhaps come from entities such as gas meters, furnaces, boilers and hot water heaters.  When people think of the concept of methane as a bridge to a renewable energy future it is usually as an interim replacement for coal until more renewable energy systems come on line.  (Many question this concept because of the current leakage rates of methane from gas infrastructure.)  However, a new study suggests that methane is serving as a bridge fuel until large-scale and reliable energy storage systems are available.  Only when that happens will power companies be able to phase out rapid-response gas turbines.

Three Virginia counties in the path of the proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline have asked FERC to delay issuing a draft environmental impact statement until most of the questions raised have been answered.  Meanwhile FERC has said that it will not conduct a coordinated review of the three pipelines proposed to cross Virginia, including the Atlantic Coast and Mountain Valley pipelines.

In a Thursday letter, EPA’s Science Advisory Board told Administrator Gina McCarthy the agency “should provide quantitative analysis that supports its conclusion that hydraulic fracturing has not led to widespread, systemic impacts on drinking water resources.”

The American Petroleum Institute is making quiet efforts to revamp its climate messaging, creating a task force that could revisit the industry’s long-held opposition to taxing greenhouse gas emissions.  Note, an earlier version of this article was released on June 28, hence the outdated references to the Democratic platform.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.

A special thanks to Joy Loving for covering the news last week while Joni and I were at the Chautauqua Institution in Chautauqua, NY attending a week of events examining humans and the environment.  The week was done in collaboration with National Geographic so the main lecture each day was given by either a photographer, an explorer, or a scientist associated with NG.  It was a very inspiring and rejuvenating week.

There is so much election news that it could dominate everything, hence I tend to avoid it in this summary.  One exception is the “U.S. Election Tracker” compiled by staff at Carbon Brief in the UK that summarizes what each presidential and vice-presidential candidate has to say on climate and energy, as well as the views of their energy advisers and their party platforms.  When there are significant updates I’ll let you know.

Climate

EPA recently released a report that shows evidence of long-term changes to our climate, and highlights impacts on human health and the environment in the United States and around the world.  The report, Climate Change Indicators in the United States, features observed trend data on 37 climate indicators, including U.S. and global temperatures, ocean acidity, sea level, river flooding, droughts, and wildfires.  Also, NOAA released its report on the State of the Climate in 2015, complied by more than 450 scientists from 62 countries.  Oliver Milman hit the high points for The Guardian, while Robert McSweeney took a deeper dive at Carbon Brief.  George Monbiot gives his view of what this all means from both the U.S. and UK political perspectives.

More bad news about coral reefs, this time around Guam, where bleaching events have occurred now for four straight years.  This has led to death of 50% of the coral in some areas.  This year’s bleaching event is expected to cause more coral death because bleaching has occurred for so many consecutive years.

The Obama administration has told federal agencies that they must consider the impact of their projects on climate change, in addition to the general environmental impacts that they also must consider.  As might be expected, Democrats and Republicans had differing opinions on the new guidelines.  Looking backwards, perhaps the federal government should have thought more about its assumptions when the military abandoned in place a facility under the ice in Greenland in 1967.  A recent study has found that it won’t be encased in ice forever, as assumed.

An outbreak of anthrax in the far north of Russia is suspected of having come from spores released as permafrost thawed due to high temperatures associated with climate change.  The outbreak killed a 12 year old boy, and sickened 40 other children and 31 adults.  It also killed 2,300 reindeer.

When we think about a warming world, polar bears get a lot of press.  But what about those iconic creatures on the other side of the globe, penguins?  Well, a recent study has examined how Adelie penguins will fare as Antarctica warms.  The bad news is that colonies will decline, but the good news is that the species won’t die out.

In a guest post on Carbon Brief Dr. David Barnes states: “Blue carbon is the term given to carbon stored in coastal or marine ecosystems. It typically refers to salt marshes, mangroves, and seagrass beds, which capture CO2 from the atmosphere and store it in their leaves, stems and in the soil.  A less well-known – but no less important – contribution to blue carbon comes from tiny organisms that live on the seabed.  These creatures, known as zoobenthos, take up carbon from the plankton they eat and the CO2 in seawater they use to build their skeletons. When the zoobenthos die, their bodies are eventually buried in the sediment of the seabed, sequestering carbon in the process.”  Dr. Barnes and a team of scientists are embarking on a voyage around Antarctica to measure the importance of blue carbon as a carbon sink.

Ellicott City, MD received over 6″ of rain in a two hour period last Saturday, causing devastating flooding downtown.  Such a rainfall is expected to occur only once in a thousand years, but is the type of event one would expect in a warming world.  As bad as that flooding was, it was not as widespread and disastrous as that in China, India, Nepal, and Pakistan where hundreds have died and millions have been forced from their homes.

Energy

One idea that is catching on in the power sector is the “virtual power plant”, a network of independent batteries, solar panels, and energy-efficient buildings that are tied together and remotely controlled by software and data systems.  The goal is to reduce customers’ energy demand at peak hours and provide renewable energy supplies in targeted areas, thereby allowing utilities to offset some of the needs for power from conventional sources and avoid disruption on the grid.  Maria Gallucci provides a tutorial about them on Yale Environment 360.  This article is well worth your time so you can tell Dominion what the future might look like.

A report on bird deaths at the Ivanpah solar energy plant in Southern California’s Mojave Desert suggests that they increased in the second year of the plant’s operation, although the authors of the report caution against comparing the two years because of differences in how data were collected.  While the numbers were in the thousands, they were still small in comparison to other human-related causes of bird mortality.

Joe Romm argues that cheap natural gas from fracked wells is the reason that half the nuclear power plants in the U.S. are no longer profitable – not the rise of solar and wind power as some have asserted.

If you like to travel by air, you might consider that replacing conventional jet fuel with carbon neutral alternatives would cost up to $60 billion a year from 2020 to 2050 and would require around 170 new bioenergy refineries to be built every year, according to the UN’s International Civil Aviation Organization.

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, commonly know as RGGI, involves nine states in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont).  Since it was implemented in 2008, RGGI states have seen a 37% decrease in emissions from electricity production, while simultaneously decreasing consumer costs.  Now 70 companies have sent a letter to the governors of the RGGI states urging them to extend the program beyond 2020.  Unfortunately, attempts to get Virginia to join RGGI have been unsuccessful.

Will off-shore wind energy ever take off in the U.S.?  Well, the Massachusetts legislature passed landmark legislation last weekend betting that it will.  In fact, that legislation may well be the catalyst that gets things moving for off-shore wind farms.  Meanwhile, many questions remain to be answered before an off-shore farm of floating wind turbines can be built off the coast of California.

One impediment to electric vehicles (EVs) right now is a lack of charging stations.  So what does one do if the battery is getting low, but no commercial charging stations are within range?  Well, turn to the sharing economy, of course.  The app Plugshare maps tens of thousands of charging stations at private residences for EV drivers.  Regardless of where they are charged, however, Camille von Kaenel of ClimateWire has ideas about how EVs can be made cleaner and benefit the grid.

These news items have been compiled by Les Grady, member and former chair of the CAAV steering committee. He is a licensed professional engineer (retired) who taught environmental engineering at Purdue and Clemson Universities and engaged in private practice with CH2M Hill, the world’s largest environmental engineering consulting firm. Since his retirement in 2003 he has devoted much of his time to the study of climate science and the question of global warming and makes himself available to speak to groups about this subject. More here.